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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.