Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.